The Global Economy is Being Rewired. Canada Can’t Run Yesterday’s Playbook 

For decades, Canadian business strategy has rested on the assumption that global disruption is cyclical. Markets slow, volatility rises, and eventually things settle and return. 

However, in today’s world, that assumption no longer holds. 

How the Global Economy Is Being Rewired

The global economy isn’t slowing; it’s being rewired by geopolitical fragmentation, supply chain redesign, shifting capital flows and the reality that shocks no longer arrive one at a time. For Canada, this is amplified by the erosion of the built-in buffer with a major trade partner. These things cascade and compound, and won’t end.

Canadian CEOs see it clearly. Roughly two-thirds now rank geopolitical tensions, instability and conflict as the top risk to their business over the next 12 months, well ahead of macroeconomic volatility, talent shortages, and AI-related risks, signalling that geopolitics has moved from the margins of strategy to the centre of it.

Navigating a Global Economy of Constant Disruption

With these shifts, we’re now operating in a non-linear, accelerated, volatile and interconnected (NAVI) world. An environment where advantage comes from building for instability with faster decisions, more options, more resilience and avoiding weak links that can derail the business.

Canada is not oblivious to this shift. Ottawa has been showing an ambitious posture on economic resilience and global engagement, including reestablishing and broadening relationships beyond North America. This has helped make Canada among the top destinations globally for expected capital investment. However, policy ambitions cannot compensate for a private sector that operates on yesterday’s assumptions and is too cautious about the future. 

CUSMA and the Risks of Overreliance on One Market

The 2026 review of the CUSMA agreement, expected to begin July 1, will likely put to rest any illusion that our economic foundation is “set and forget.”

For decades, the Canadian playbook has been clear: build at home and then scale to the US, a path that has delivered prosperity and remains valuable, but is, in business terms, a concentration risk. The businesses that depend on one path for growth will be more vulnerable when trade rules, industrial policy and security priorities shift.

So yes, Canadian businesses need to act. And we’re seeing the early stages of a sentiment shift in this direction.

Using M&A and Partnerships to Build Resilience

In today’s economy, market access and resilience are increasingly secured through moves like M&A, partnerships, divestments and supply-chain investments that lock in capabilities and reduce exposure. It’s already how leaders are behaving, as 62% of Canadian CEOs expect to pursue M&A in the coming year, while 38% are considering divestments or other portfolio changes.

The point isn’t that every company should go hunting for deals; it’s that the most effective leaders are using transactions and partnerships to actively reshape their businesses for a world where the map keeps moving.

For Canada, it’s a difficult shift because many haven’t had to think in a truly global way. That era is ending, not because the US stops mattering, but because relying on one answer to the big growth question is risky. Expanding into new markets, building global partnerships, and scaling beyond North America is no longer optional but a strategic necessity.

Productivity and Strategic Mobility in the Global Economy

This is where productivity comes in, and where Canada often frames the issue too narrowly, because it’s still treated as an internal efficiency problem: cutting costs, streamlining processes, and squeezing more output from the same inputs.

In a NAVI world, efficiency needs to be coupled with continued investment, including strategic mobility, the ability to redeploy capital, diversify markets and build new capabilities quickly. It’s about moving from “plan” to “decision” without paralysis.

It also requires acting earlier. A common response among CEOs is not to pause, but to strengthen financial resilience through cost discipline and capital reallocation while continuing to invest selectively. The leading firms are not waiting for stability; they are adapting to volatility.

Building Competitive Advantage for Long-Term Growth

At its core, this is a mindset challenge of ambition, exploration, risk-taking and a willingness to compete beyond familiar markets. In a rewired global economy, growth goes to firms that choose where to play and then build the partnerships, capabilities and resilience to win there.

The companies that will outperform are already moving, diversifying supply chains, pursuing strategic deals, stress-testing their exposure to disruption and investing in capabilities that position them for long-term growth. They are not waiting for a return to normal; they are building for our reality.

Competing Successfully in a Rewired Global Economy

Canada’s opportunity is real, both at home and abroad. I hear it in meetings around the world, and we see it in Canada being a top investment destination globally. We have strong institutions, deep talent and a credible and defensible global position in key sectors. Our government is aligning with this reality, but now businesses need to do the same. It’s no longer about when the global economy will ‘return to normal’, it’s whether we are prepared to compete in one that won’t.